[SEJ] Katie Thorn and David Hartley: Expert judgement in the pharmaceutical industry: Predicting success in a world of attrition

14 March 2023 14:00 till 15:00 | Add to my calendar

Pharmaceutical organisations often rely on the use of expert judgment to build understanding of expected future outcomes across Research and Development. Most notably in the characterisation of a Probability of Technical and Regulatory Success - the likelihood that each medicine under consideration makes it on to market. Mechanisms for the elicitation of this data have been in place for many years across organisations, but both the techniques utilised and the expert structure considered varies by company.

The landscape of drug development is evolving and with this we see the complexity of medicine development plans increasing and companies (who historically may have had a single differentiating factor) needing to be more versatile.  As a result, the requirements for, and demands on, expertise are becoming more complex.

In this presentation we will share common use cases in which expert judgment is considered in the pharmaceutical industry, the approaches used and the associated differences between organisations. We will also highlight, and be seeking input on, several constraints we face and challenges still to be tackled.