Quantum computing, national security and geopolitical competition
You work at TNO, the Dutch Organisation of Applied Research, as Business Director of Cybersecurity & Quantum Technology. What are your main functions at TNO?
My main role is to make sure TNO does the right research & development projects for the defense sector on quantum technology and cybersecurity. Besides that I coordinate TNO’s overall cybersecurity R&D portfolio.
TNO and TU Delft have created QuTech, the organization that develops quantum computing. TNO also brings new technologies to industry. Is industry already interested in quantum computing?
For starters we see a growing number of quantum technology startups, slowly but surely building an industry base. And we’ve seen in industry some initial experiments, for instance, internationally in Big Tech, automotive & traffic, defense, aviation & space, financial institutes and pharmaceuticals. Explorations are usually about the applicability of quantum algorithms and learning the pros and cons. What are the opportunities, what is the business case?
Also the threat of quantum computing is on the radar. Focus here is on making cryptography of stored and communicated data safe for future decryption techniques enabled by quantum computers. The National Institute for Technology and Standardization in the US runs an international competition for new post quantum crypto algorithms. Final results are expected in 2024 and then implementation of quantum safe algorithms in systems and networks can start, which may take another couple of years.
Another approach to quantum-safe cryptography is Quantum Key Distribution over a quantum internet. Here some early solutions are already available on the market and multiple industries have shown interest in this approach, though a lot of work is still to be done.
We see a growing number of quantum technology start-ups, slowly but surely building an industry base.
Quantum computing was, for a long time, a topic of only research institutes and some early adopters in industry. Currently we see also interest by national security agencies and the military. What are their main thoughts or worries about quantum computing?
The key concern in the security community is of course the threat to current encryption. With the foresight of quantum computing available in the cloud, every cybercriminal could potentially break the security of, say, financial transactions or e-government facilities. That is a major risk. In the military a two-edged approach can be seen. What is the advantage if we have quantum technology and our opponent does not? Can we break their crypto? Can we process large quantities of data much faster? On the other hand: what is the threat if our opponent does have quantum technology and we don’t (or less)?
The development of quantum computing was initially mainly open science: findings are published and prototype quantum computers are shared globally. Will that open character be changed by the interest of security agencies and the military?
I don’t think major changes will take place here. Fundamental research was and will be transparent. However, when you get close to military or security operations in your research, things become more secluded. Informing the scientific community is one thing, informing your opponent on specific military capabilities is another.
With the geo-political competition between the US, China and EU the main question seems to become who will have the first powerful quantum computer. Is this the right question? Are there other factors relevant in this global competition?
Interesting question! For sure quantum computing has become a geopolitical issue. Large and smaller geopolitical players invest, like the US, Japan, Russia, China, Canada, Denmark et cetera. The Netherlands does also and punches with the Quantum Delta NL investment above its weight. I think both security and economic growth are at stake here. Quantum technology also fits quite well in discussions at the EU and Dutch level on strategic (digital) autonomy. The main question seems to be how much control we strive for on quantum computing. Is it okay to invest in R&D and leave selling quantum computers to the Americans? Should we focus on algorithms and applications too? My answers would be: no, yes.
My personal key concern is: who will build and deliver future Dutch or European quantum computers? Currently investments in Europe are mainly public and, as far as I can see, no big European industry player is substantially engaged in developing a quantum computer. In the US Big Tech is in the driver seat and I guess they are also well positioned to win the market for quantum computing. Where does that leave us?
My call to action is therefore to form a consortium of major industry players and startups to reap the benefits of quantum computing R&D. Quantum Delta NL can be the perfect platform to kickstart that consortium!