ERC Grant: Dynamics of long-distance passenger transport systems
Oded Cats receives an ERC Consolidator grant for a new research programme on long-distance passenger transport systems. The outcomes can boost the design of an integrated international network of transport services that is attractive, sustainable, resilient and equitable.
The new research programme, called Multi-layer, Multi-modal and Multi-class Air and Rail Systems (3MARS), aims to capture the market relations and dynamics between supply and demand and amongst service providers in response to policy interventions.
Oded Cats, professor in Passenger Transport Systems at TU Delft: “We will develop and test models of transport systems in the uncharted domain of long-distance transport markets. This can allow us to design and assess the most effective alternative network developments and policy measures while taking into account how service users as well as service providers adapt and evolve in response to such changes.”
At the urban and regional level, transport authorities develop a plan for public transport and the operators then bid for service concessions. So there is a central planner. We don’t have that in the long distance market.
Service providers collaborate and compete
Cats used to focus on urban and regional transport. In the international transport network there are multiple and diverse service providers, think of KLM, Flix bus, Eurostar or Deutsche Bahn. Each one of which does not only develop its own network of connections and timetable but also sets its own prices using sophisticated revenue management techniques.
Moreover, these market players both compete and collaborate, think for example of alliances and air-rail integration programs. Cats’ research in 3MARS will support the design, planning and policy making of long-distance transport systems that will consider this ‘network-of-networks’ and focus on attractive and sustainable alternative for travelling exclusively by car or airplane.
An attractive European high-speed rail network
In a recent scientific publication, Oded Cats, Jorik Grolle and colleagues design the routes and frequences of an attractive and competitive European high-speed rail network. The current patchwork of poorly connected subnetworks should transform into a European network. They also developed a series of experiments that show the performance of the designed rail network under various policy priorities.
Travel demand
Besides designing a better system on the supply-side, Cats is also keen on gaining more empirical underpinning on the demand-side in order to better understand, forecast and manage travel demand. “Eighty percent of long-distance trips are for leisure. So passengers have often some degrees of freedom”, he explains. Are people willing to chose another destination? How can we stimulate them to make a more sustainable choice? How will travellers respond to different pricing mechanisms?
Impact of policies
Policy interventions can steer the transport market. Cats cites an interesting example: “In France, policymakers decided that it is no longer allowed to offer domestic flights for connections where a high-speed rail connection of up to 2.5 hours is available.” In order to understand, forecast and devise policies related to long-distance travel, there is an urgent need for new paradigms, which consider service providers’ strategic behaviour, network development strategies, policy trajectories and co-evolution of markets.
When designing and assessing such policies it is crucial to consider the impacts for network connectivity, emission reducing goals, multi-modal system resilience and equity considerations such as geographical disparities. The new research programme, funded by the ERC Consolidator grant, is set to deliver just that.
Headerphoto by Oded Cat