Frequently asked questions

Foresight centres on exploring potential futures. Whereas forecasting tries to answer "what will happen tomorrow," foresight helps organizations decide "what future do we want to make?" Possible futures are explored through methods such as horizon scanning, scenario development and policy stress testing. As such, foresight offers a way for the organisation to jointly (learn to) deal with uncertainty.

“Foresight is the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform today’s decision making. It is a capacity that we need to develop individuals, as organisations, and as a society” (Maree Conway). Strategic foresight is the application of the insights gained through foresight within strategy and decision-making processes of the organisation.

Strategic foresight does not relate to predicting the future. Its goals are to discover the perspectives of alternative futures and use those perspectives to inform the present.

The motivation to implement foresight at TU Delft is based on the nature of conventional decision- and policy making, the organizational characteristics of TU Delft, and the world in which TU Delft has to operate.

Decision-making is a group process in which all kinds of group dynamics are at play, like groupthink. Strategic foresight offers an antidote to such group dynamics, offering a space to step back, critically question and deliberate on strategy, to systematically and explicitly address critical dependencies in the organisation as a system, by adopting an outside-in-perspective on policy issues. 

Strategic foresight is considered one of the TU Delft initiatives that contribute to the objectives of the institutional plan - TU Delft Strategic Agenda 2024-2030. With its aim to use our deliberative skills to imagine possible futures and to present decision makers and policy planners structured (policy) options, strategic foresight is presented as complementary to the usual linear way of doing strategy and focused on strengthening anticipatory governance of the institution.

In May 2023 the Executive Board of TU Delft decided to develop a strategic foresight facility over the next five years. Following this decision the strategic foresight activities started 1 June 2023. The period until the end of 2023 is seen as a startup period during which: the Strategic Foresight & Innovation team was formed, the operational framework was developed, support base was built, Foresight Field Labs were started, and training activities for the staff involved took place.  

Since April 1st 2024 the Strategic Foresight & Innovation (SF&I) unit has been formed as a separate unit within the Strategic Development (SD) directorate. The unit is responsible for carrying out, supporting, and coordinating the projects and activities.

For further development, a programmatic approach is followed in which an appropriate form is sought for the function that strategic foresight should fulfil for the organisation. This in accordance with the following operational principles:

• Demand-driven
• The user is central
• Connected to relevant academic expertise
• Application of internationally recognised methods
• Focused on establishing a user community
• Quality assurance of the foresight facility's products and services
   

Strategic foresight offers a valuable framework that allows you to look ahead and prepare for future developments, challenges, and opportunities. Through this approach, you can:

1. Develop proactive policies: By exploring different future scenarios and developing policy directions, you can proactively design strategies that anticipate potential changes and challenges.
2. Enhance resilience: By engaging in normative-inbound you can test the boundaries of your existing policies and strategies. This allows you to identify and strengthen potential weaknesses, making your organization more resilient to unexpected developments.
3. Better understanding of external factors: Strategic foresight enables you to gain a deeper understanding of the external factors influencing your (strategic) environment. By understanding these factors, you can be better prepared for changes and adjust your strategies accordingly.
4. Strengthen your team: By developing a common basis to look together towards the future, you strengthen your team, build trust after – for example - a reorganization or build ties after (partially) renewing or forming a new team.
    

There are various methods for applying foresight, each with its own focus and approach. Generally speaking, we categorize these methods into two main approaches: explorative-outbound focus and normative-inbound focus.

Explorative-outbound focus involves developing various future scenarios and policies from the current standpoint, expanding our understanding of possibilities. Methods falling under this approach include scenario development, visioning, SWOT-TOWS analysis, horizon scanning, 7 Questions interviews, 3 horizons, axes of uncertainty, drivers mapping.

On the other hand, normative-inbound focus entails testing the limits of existing policies and scrutinizing pre-established future scenarios. Methods falling under this approach include policy stress testing, wind-tunnelling, back casting, road mapping, pre mortem.

It's important to note that no single approach works for everyone in strategic foresight. Therefore, the flexibility of foresight methods is emphasized. The chosen approach is tailored to the unique needs of each department, making foresight a personalized tool for success. Which method suits your needs best depends on the specific question you are addressing and the time available for analysis and planning.

Questions that are eligible for a strategic foresight approach typically revolve around various aspects of policy, strategy, and future planning. Here are some key questions to consider:

• Are you in the process of developing a new policy or strategy within your area of responsibility?
• Have you been asked to provide insights into the future direction of your organizational unit, department, directorate, faculty, or collaborative consortium?
• Do you need to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the relevant developments in your external environment?
• Are you concerned about the resilience and adaptability of your current policies and strategies?
• Are you curious about the primary external drivers influencing your strategic area?
• Is embedding long-term thinking into your policies and strategies a priority?
• Do you want a quick yet systematic examination of future horizons?
• Are you unsure about how to approach these issues within the complex decision-making system of the university?
   

These questions highlight the need for a strategic foresight approach in navigating the complexities of future planning , ensuring informed decision-making and proactive adaptation to emerging trends and challenges.

The start of a typical foresight project usually consists of three phases. Firstly, a presentation on strategic foresight is delivered to the team, department, or directorate. If this presentation is well-received, the next step is an intake discussion. During this phase, involving one or more meetings with the concerned unit, the scope of the project is determined to tailor the foresight field lab to its specific context. Through these conversations, the potential impact of foresight in the given context is pinpointed.

A crucial criterion is that the foresight trajectory aligns with existing processes to ensure integration and avoid isolation. Thus, a foresight intervention must be integrated into the unit's critical path. Another prerequisite is sufficient support and commitment within the unit for engaging with strategic foresight.

To establish clear expectations, the third step is to present potential participants with a foresight proposal (e.g. Terms of Reference). This document addresses key questions, providing a tangible outline of the foresight journey ahead. The proposal can offer various pathways, ranging from small-scale (hours) to medium-scale (days) or large-scale (months) projects.

The problem/question at hand is defined through a structured approach during the scoping phase of the strategic foresight process. This phase involves several key steps:

1. Scoping question: Identifying the core issues is essential to determine the focus of the foresight process. This happens through close interaction with potential participants, and with the aid of methods such as the scoping circle method. During scoping, relevant internal and external stakeholders for a potential foresight project are also identified.
2. Tool selection: This step involves selecting the appropriate combination(s) of foresight tools and methods to be used in the specific case. A suggestion for the tool selection is made by members of the foresight team after the initial consultation.
3. Terms of Reference: Establishing the frameworks and guidelines within which the project will operate, including which tool(s) will be used. This is necessary to clearly define mutual expectations, particularly regarding timelines and outcomes. If it is agreed to deploy a succession of tools, a go/no-go decision is incorporated at the completion of each tool's application. The terms of reference also specify how a foresight trajectory is linked to ongoing processes within the context of the specific case and which internal and external stakeholders are relevant to involve now or later in the process.
    

There are several key steps and aspects to anticipate. Firstly, the project initiates by implementing the work arrangements as outlined in the terms of reference within the agreed timeframe. This involves applying the selected tools and methods to gather insights and analyse future scenarios.

Collecting and processing feedback is another crucial aspect to consider. Feedback plays a vital role in ensuring the relevance and accuracy of the foresight outcomes. It allows for adjustments and refinements to be made as needed to enhance the effectiveness of the foresight process.

Additionally, fine-tuning is an important aspect of the project. As outlined in the terms of reference, it's necessary to assess after each completed application whether continuation is relevant for the participants. This approach enables participants to manage their time and effort effectively, ensuring that the project remains focused and aligned with the desired outcomes.

Lastly, letting time do its work. Conducting strategic foresight requires sufficient time to think, reflect and arrive at conclusions throughout the process. It is therefore important to take enough time for the process and leaving sufficient time in between sessions and discussions to allow for reflection.

In the closure phase, the project team wraps up with the delivery of final products such as reports, scenarios, or roadmaps. These serve as comprehensive documents encapsulating insights gained throughout the process. Additionally, recommendations for future actions are provided, backed by a thorough evaluation by all involved parties, facilitating a smooth transition into the next phase if required.

If desired, there are possibilities to guide you into a strategy development phase. Here, the emphasis shifts towards potential avenues for further engagement. This involves identifying opportunities for continuation or expansion of the project, potentially leading to the formulation of a concrete strategy or policy plan based on the insights gained from the foresight trajectory. If needed, a follow-up terms of reference may be formulated. This could involve advice on the development of an action plan or strategic framework aligned with the foresight outcomes, ensuring internal governance alignment and informed decision-making processes.