MSc thesis at AXA PARIS on modelling of coastal flooding due to Tropical Cyclones

 

Objective: To assess tropical cyclone (TC) risk by developing a TC database with a hydraulic model combined with probabilistic or machine learning techniques

Methodology: Coastal Flood Risk assessment require the modeling of a stochastic catalogue of numerous plausible events. Bathtub or bucket-fill approach is commonly used to assess coastal inundation because of low computation costs. However such methods have strong limitations in terms of physics (no dynamic processes) and gather large associated uncertainties in flood estimations. Advanced process-based models like Delft3D allow us to simulate the dynamic process of coastal flooding but are computationally expensive. However, these tools can be used to build a database of results, and then combined with machine learning, AI, or other pattern recognition tools for flood estimation.

The student will be responsible for installing and running the chosen storm surge model (likely Delft3D or Dflow-FM) coupled to a Tropical Cyclone wind model. Modelling of surge-driven flooding and heavy precipitation induced flooding in coastal areas is the major objective of the thesis. Area of study will be the Atlantic Basin Hurricane. Yet the modelling set-up should be designed in order to be easily adapted and run for other regions at risk such as the West Pacific Basin Typhoon region. Modelling results will be compared and assessed against a catalogue of observed coastal flood events in the USA. The student will also work toward construction of a probabilistic or pattern recognition method to estimate flood depths for a large number of events.

Candidates should have strong analytical mindset, strong programming skills (Python, Matlab, or similar), as well as good communication skills to be able to work as part of a team. The candidate should have a strong background in hydraulic and coastal engineering. Experience in installing and running numerical models are a plus.

The MSc will sit primarily at AXA’s headquarters in Paris, but the working language will be English (knowledge of French is NOT necessary). The MSc will receive a generous living allowance, appropriate for Paris.

Contact: Dr. Jeremy D. Bricker, j.d.bricker@tudelft.nl, CITG 3.96, 015 278 3187
Dr. Remi Meynadier (AXA PARIS) remi.meynadier@axa.com