[SEJ] Gordon Woo: Expert Judgement on Ukraine Conflict Risk

28 februari 2023 14:00 t/m 15:00 | Zet in mijn agenda

Some of the most important practical applications of the use of expert judgement are in international relations. The Russian invasion of Ukraine which started on 24 February 2022 has created the biggest threat to global peace and stability since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. President Kennedy estimated the odds of disaster as between one out of three or even. The odds of disaster resulting from the Ukraine war are much smaller than this, but President Putin has pledged to use all powers and means to defend Russia. Misunderstandings and miscalculations are a feature of crisis diplomacy. The role of expert judgement in political crisis management is reviewed, with a focus on Ukraine war risk. Insights from counterfactual analysis of past crises are explored.