Simon French: Subjective Expert Judgement: A Retrospective over 4 Decades

It's been over 40 years since I first began to think about and work on the elicitation and combination of expert judgement in risk and decision analysis.  In the talk and discussion I hope to reflect on several issues that have taken my attention, including

• dependencies between the experts' and decision makers' judgements
• the development of the Classical Model
• the importance of process alongside theoretical models
• the growth of real applications
• Bayesian approaches 
• the need for research to converge modelling and elicitation