Impact of criminal trade-offs on the international criminal supply chain

The interception of illegal shipments originating from South America making their way towards the Netherlands hit new records in 2020. Despite the growing efforts of the Dutch National Police and Dutch Customs, the size of the criminal supply chains is only increasing. By adding the impact of criminal behaviour to the detection practices of the Dutch Customs, this thesis aims to increase criminal detection by identifying transport scenarios with a high chance of smuggling, using the criminal risk vs gain trade-offs. Analysing supply chains based on their trade-offs is a much-used practice for legitimate supply chains but has not yet been applied to criminal supply chains. The conclusions show a pivotal role of corruption in criminal supply chains. Aiming for Police interventions tackling corruption in the ports of Rotterdam and Vlissingen will be the most efficient way to derail the criminal supply chain.