With just a few clicks Oded Cats, professor of passenger transport systems, empties the streets of Amsterdam of all cars. In a simulation model, that is. ‘Now what if we ban Uber? Or allow only trams?’ From his office in the CEG faculty building Cats is experimenting with a complex computer model creating a wealth of different virtual transport scenarios. He can even add a market space for mobility credits to promote sustainable modes. He is constantly in search for the passenger transport system which provides the most accessibility while offering an efficient and sustainable alternative.
The thought that there must be more efficient ways of managing transport is one that Cats has been entertaining since his youth in the suburbs of Tel Aviv. The long commute to school and back annoyed him. But from frustration a lifelong fascination with transport planning and operations was born.
Fast forward a number of years and as a co-director of the Smart Public Transport Lab at the Transport & Planning department he is taking on the complex transport challenges that beset most large cities. Cats’ computer models can generate any conceivable scenario and provide insights into what happens to a city when its car and public transport streams are re-designed. That knowledge has become essential for transport authorities and public transport operators grappling with transport policy in an increasingly complex playing field.
Solution or part of the problem?
For a long time transport policy centred on cars versus public transport. The government devised plans to promote the use of trains and buses and discourage car use. And then suddenly all these services popped up, like Uber, GreenWheels and Felyx, and turned things on their heads. All these modes of shared mobility have brought a whole new dynamic to the cities, with apps and platforms that allow both users and providers to become more adaptive.
Cats explains: ‘We no longer have to own a car or bike to use one. Users have access to more flexible, on demand forms of transport and no longer only depend on the rigid timetables and fixed locations of trains, buses and trams.’ But this does lead to new and urgent questions that have to be answered: are these services part of the solution or part of the problem? Should the authorities encourage or regulate them? How do you find out? ‘That is what ‘Mobility as a Service’ is all about (see box). This is not just about shared mobility but about flexibility and ownership.’
What if?
The challenge for the authorities is to figure out how to manage the interaction between public transport and the new services, Cats says. ‘One of the ways of doing this is to examine different scenarios. What would happen, for instance, if we were to allow the unlimited introduction of the new services? Or ban cars from our cities? Such scenarios cannot be tried out in practice for a week or two, of course.’
That’s why Cats and his colleagues devised a series of models to answer these questions. Cats’ research team combined data, like public transport capacity and travel schedules, with information they estimate and infer about behaviour and user preferences from experiments and past choices, for example from smart card data. ‘There are many factors that come into play. How do people perceive service reliability and crowding? Are people prepared to share a vehicle for part of their journey? Are they ok with a detour?’ By combining all the data Cats came up with a model that incorporates known wishes and demands of all types of users.
A tenth of all cars
Cats moves from one model or example to another with lightning speed. On the screen of his laptop dozens of little dots are moving simultaneously. Each command has a direct influence on the scenario, leading to some interesting insights. ‘If you were to combine self-driving vehicles with a properly organised metro system the city traffic would run smoothly with only a tenth of the number of cars. However, every self-driving car would make many more journeys,’ Cats explains. ‘But remove the metro system and we would all be facing longer journeys.’
Steering sustainable travel modes in Europe
Now he is looking further into the future with his models, by incorporating the concept of tradable mobility credits. ‘Imagine that all passengers receive free credits to travel. Sustainable travel modes cost less credits. People can sell credits to others who want to travel more, or by less sustainable alternatives.’
Research implementing this market system already gave insights in long-distance travel within Europe. It showed that tradable mobility credits make flights less attractive and increase the share of passengers traveling by rail, especially when trips are no longer than 500 kilometres. ‘Using this as a policy instruments can open new doors for steering the mobility market and promote more sustainable travel modes.’ One thing is certain: for Oded Cats the world can always be organised much more efficiently.
Published: September 2020
Updated: November 2024
Oded Cats
Oded is professor at the department of Transport and Planning
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is the result of an ever-more dynamic relationship between providers of transport and user demand. MaaS breaks the boundaries between individual ownership and the collective use of travel alternatives. The research project Critical MaaS is being finished in 2024.
The Smart Public Transport Lab develops new solutions and methods to improve public transport planning, operation and management. It carries out research which contributes to the development of more efficient, sustainable and resilient multimodal transport systems.